Truckload Market Tightens as Carrier Capacity Shrinks, Rates Rise

US truck shippers should prepare for higher freight costs through 2026 as tightening truckload
capacity continues to push rates higher, according to ACT Research.

Speaking at the SMC3 Connections conference in Palm Beach, Florida, ACT Research Vice
President and Senior Analyst Tim Denoyer said truckload contract rates are projected to
increase 20% year over year by the end of 2026, excluding fuel surcharges, while spot rates
could rise as much as 40%.

Denoyer said the truckload market remains “extremely tight,” driven primarily by a sharp decline
in capacity rather than stronger freight demand. He cited the exit of many small carriers,
regulatory crackdowns on unsafe or illegal drivers, rising truck costs, and weak new truck sales
as key factors limiting capacity.

Preliminary Journal of Commerce data showed the average shipper-paid spot truckload rate for
June increased 16 cents from May to $3.24 per mile on lanes longer than 250 miles. The
median all-inclusive spot rate also climbed 19 cents to $3.63 per mile.

Additional pressure on rates is coming from a strong produce season in the Southeast and
continued frontloading of Asian imports through the Port of Los Angeles.

According to ACT Research, the US needs about 150,000 new Class 8 trucks each year to
maintain its fleet, with annual replacement needs expected to approach 170,000 by the end of
the decade. However, current production remains well below that level, and approximately
40,000 trucks have effectively been removed from the market due to weak new truck sales.

Denoyer also warned that tighter emissions standards, even after regulatory revisions, are
expected to add nearly $10,000 to the cost of each new heavy-duty truck, while ongoing driver
shortages will continue to constrain capacity.

The tight truckload market is also benefiting less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers, as more heavy
shipments shift from truckload to LTL. Denoyer said stronger industrial production is expected to
further support LTL volumes, adding that truckload capacity is unlikely to improve anytime soon.