Tariffs, Regulation and Liability Create a New Capacity Crunch for U.S. Trucking

A combination of tariff uncertainty, stricter federal enforcement and a landmark Supreme Court
ruling is creating new pressure on trucking capacity just as freight volumes are beginning to
recover.

The temporary 10% import surcharge under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 is scheduled
to expire on July 24, prompting many importers to accelerate shipments before any new tariff
program takes effect. The National Retail Federation expects import cargo at major U.S. ports to
reach record levels in July as retailers frontload inventory ahead of potential trade changes.

For drayage providers serving the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, the resulting surge in
container volumes could tighten truck availability and increase pressure on already constrained
operations.

However, tariffs are only one piece of the puzzle.

The trucking industry is simultaneously facing a series of regulatory and legal changes that
could reduce available capacity.

The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) has intensified enforcement of long-
standing English Language Proficiency (ELP) requirements for commercial drivers. Drivers who
cannot demonstrate sufficient English skills during roadside inspections are now placed out of
service, following new federal enforcement guidance and updated Commercial Vehicle Safety
Alliance inspection criteria. Congress has also directed FMCSA to make English proficiency
violations an automatic out-of-service offense.

The crackdown extends beyond English proficiency. FMCSA is also tightening oversight of non-
domiciled CDLs, fraudulent driver training schools, electronic logging device manipulation and
other compliance issues. Industry analysts say these initiatives could sideline additional drivers
and further reduce available trucking capacity during 2026.

While English proficiency rules apply to commercial motor vehicle (CDL) drivers rather than
non-CDL drivers, broader enforcement efforts, including tighter licensing standards and
increased scrutiny of commercial drivers, are expected to reduce the available driver pool and
increase compliance costs for carriers.

At the same time, brokers face a new legal landscape following the U.S. Supreme Court’s
unanimous decision in Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II (involving freight broker C.H.
Robinson). The Court ruled that freight brokers may be sued under state law for negligently
selecting unsafe motor carriers, rejecting the argument that such claims are preempted by
federal law.

The ruling is expected to raise the standard for carrier selection. Many brokers are likely to
tighten vetting requirements, avoid carriers with questionable safety records and reduce the
number of motor carriers eligible for freight. Industry groups have warned that brokers now face
greater legal exposure and may become more selective when awarding loads.

Taken together, these developments are creating what many in the trucking industry describe as
a “perfect storm” for capacity.

Importers are rushing freight into the country before potential tariff changes, while stricter
federal enforcement is removing some commercial drivers from service and forcing fleets to
strengthen compliance. At the same time, brokers are becoming more cautious in carrier
selection following the Supreme Court’s broker liability decision.

For shippers, the combination could translate into tighter truck availability, higher transportation
costs and longer lead times during the second half of 2026—particularly in major gateway
markets such as Los Angeles and Long Beach. Whether these pressures persist will depend
largely on the tariff policy that replaces, or follows, the Section 122 surcharge after July 24.