Container Lines Face Pressure to Sustain Capacity Discipline in H2 2025

Capacity discipline and external factors helped ease overcapacity in container shipping during
the first half of 2025. Container lines also secured modest gains when locking in their annual
trans-Pacific service contracts, which were 10–20% higher than last year’s rates.

According to sources cited by the Journal of Commerce, higher contract levels brought rates
closer to $2,000 per FEU (forty-foot equivalent unit) to the U.S. West Coast for midsize
importers.

However, heading into the second half of the year, pressure is mounting on ocean carriers to
manage capacity more carefully. Container spot rates have dropped sharply in the trans-Pacific
trade, weighed down by rising chartering costs and higher terminal handling charges.

In previous years, service contract rates typically fell in response to spot rate declines in the
second half. But this year, importers have already negotiated some pricing relief on their
minimum quantity commitments (MQCs), agreed upon earlier in the year.

Whether carriers will maintain discipline if spot rates continue to fall after the early—and now
fading—peak season remains to be seen. Still, there’s a chance they’ll hold the line. Many
carriers enforced MQCs during the early-May surge, when spot rates briefly spiked.

The industry hasn’t forgotten the hard lesson from the 2008–09 financial crisis: failing to cut
capacity quickly when demand falls leads to major losses. This year, when bookings from China
jumped unexpectedly in early May, carriers responded fast. Within a month, they added roughly
600,000 TEUs of capacity on the trans-Pacific route—about 15% more than normal—according
to Michael Aldwell, executive vice president of sea logistics at Kuehne + Nagel.

Mediterranean Shipping Co. (MSC), which is no longer part of a carrier alliance, had more
flexibility to quickly restore capacity. Meanwhile, a subdued peak season in the Asia-Europe
trade allowed MSC and other carriers to deploy extra ships. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, through
their Gemini Cooperation, initially used smaller vessels when demand dropped, then returned to
larger ships as volume recovered.

Because of this agile response, Gemini avoided blank sailings, or skipped port calls, even
though some shipments were delayed when smaller ships couldn’t keep up with demand. Still,
Gemini maintained a 90% reliability rate, Maersk North America President Charles van der
Steene told the Journal of Commerce in May.

But the momentum shifted again by early June, when regional carriers from intra-Asia began
flooding the trans-Pacific market to take advantage of high spot rates. This, combined with signs
of weaker-than-expected U.S. import demand following a temporary pause in new tariffs,
dragged spot rates down once more.

Aldwell noted that stronger capacity control is healthy for the market. “We need stable, profitable
ocean carriers to support global trade,” he said in a June 16 interview at K+N’s headquarters in

Schindellegi, Switzerland. “The last thing we need is another Hanjin [Shipping] crisis,” he added,
referring to the South Korean carrier’s 2016 collapse.

Overcapacity remains a challenge, but Aldwell said that with smart management, the industry
can avoid another financial disaster—for both customers and suppliers.