Limited Vessel Movement Seen as Hormuz Trade Grinds to Near Halt

Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is expected to remain largely halted in
the foreseeable future, a shipbroker said, following a U.S.-imposed blockade after failed
peace talks with Iran.

The United States began targeting Iranian cargoes transiting the strait after President
Donald Trump announced the blockade on Sunday, April 12, following negotiations in
Islamabad that ended without an agreement. Despite the measures focusing on Iranian
shipments, vessels are currently unable to move in either direction through the strategic
waterway.

However, shipping data shows that a limited number of vessels have still managed to
pass through the strait despite the blockade, highlighting gaps in enforcement and the
complexity of maritime movements in the region. A U.S.-sanctioned Chinese-owned
tanker carrying about 250,000 barrels of methanol was among those that successfully
transited the chokepoint, becoming one of the first known ships to pass since the
blockade took effect.

At least eight vessels, including several Iran-linked tankers not bound for Iranian ports,
were also reported to have crossed the strait in the early phase of the blockade, while
others were turned back by U.S. forces, underscoring a selective enforcement approach
targeting Iran-related trade.

The blockade has heightened uncertainty across the shipping market, according to
Clarkson Securities analyst Frode Mørkedal. “Fears of being trapped inside the Hormuz
are keeping shipowners away from the region,” he said.

Shipbroker BRS said expectations that last week’s ceasefire agreement would quickly
restore traffic through the strait were misplaced, noting that a return to normal
conditions in the Middle East now appears more distant than it did a week ago. “It is
anticipated that there will be little or no commercial traffic in the strait for the foreseeable
future,” BRS said.

Several tankers have already rerouted to the Atlantic basin, while others remain on
standby awaiting clearance to pass through the strait toward the Pacific, aiming to
capitalize on a potential recovery in Middle East Gulf demand.

However, a prolonged closure of the strait presents downside risks for tanker markets.
Analysts warn it could trigger broader demand destruction and intensify competition for
cargoes in the Atlantic basin.

“We are now approaching a critical point, in our view, with demand destruction starting
to spread across the complex,” Pareto Securities said.

BRS added that signs of oil demand destruction are already emerging, particularly in
developing Asian markets. In Europe, rising fuel costs—amid recent protests—are also
beginning to weigh on consumption.

“The longer Hormuz remains closed, the more demand destruction will be required to
balance the global market,” BRS said, warning that this could significantly curb global
crude and product tanker demand.