US Import Volumes Rebound in March but Tariffs, Middle East Tensions Keep Pressure on Trade
Import cargo volumes at major US container ports continue to face downward pressure
amid tariffs and ongoing trade policy uncertainty, with rising global fuel costs adding
further strain on supply chains, even as the latest data shows signs of a seasonal
rebound in March.
The situation is being compounded by tensions in Iran and the broader Middle East,
which have pushed up fuel prices and disrupted key shipping routes, with the Strait of
Hormuz effectively restricted and increasing threats along the Bab al-Mandeb Strait
adding risk to global maritime corridors.
According to the latest Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail
Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, US ports handled 1.95 million twenty-foot
equivalent units (TEUs) in February, down 7.5 percent from January and 4.2 percent
year-on-year.
March figures, however, indicate a rebound. Data from Descartes Systems Group
showed US container import volumes rose 12.4 percent month-on-month to 2.35 million
TEUs, marking the fourth-highest March volume on record.
Despite the monthly increase, volumes were still down 1.1 percent compared to March
2025 and year-to-date imports trail last year’s levels by 4.8 percent.
The rebound reflects typical seasonal patterns following February’s slowdown, with
demand remaining steady despite ongoing geopolitical and policy uncertainty. Import
volumes also remained significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels, up 32.3 percent
compared to March 2019.
China-origin imports declined 2.3 percent month-on-month and 6.7 percent year-on-
year, signaling continued shifts in sourcing patterns amid tariffs and trade tensions.
Meanwhile, East and Gulf Coast ports overtook West Coast ports in market share for
the first time since May 2025, while port transit delays remained largely stable.
March projections in the Global Port Tracker had estimated imports at 1.97 million
TEUs, representing an 8.3 percent year-on-year decline, underscoring the volatility in
current forecasting conditions.
Forecasts for the following months show mixed trends: April is expected to reach 2.08
million TEUs, down 5.6 percent year-on-year; May at 2.09 million TEUs, up 7.3 percent;
June at 2.1 million TEUs, up 6.9 percent; July at 2.2 million TEUs, down 8 percent; and
August at 2.18 million TEUs, down 6 percent.
If realized, total import volumes for the first half of 2026 would reach 12.3 million TEUs,
down 1.8 percent from 12.53 million TEUs in the same period last year.
“Just because retailers don’t import a lot of merchandise from the Middle East doesn’t
mean the US supply chain isn’t affected by the turmoil there,” NRF Vice President for
Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said.
“The supply chain is global, and disruptions anywhere along it can have ripple effects,
whether it’s rerouting of vessels, equipment out of position, higher fuel costs for
shippers or rising gas prices that leave less money in consumers’ pockets,” he added.
Gold said retailers are closely monitoring developments and working with transportation
partners to minimize disruptions, even as they contend with rising tariffs and continued
trade policy uncertainty that are weighing on import volumes and pushing prices higher.
