China Port Congestion Threatens to Extend Shipping Peak Season Into 2027

Severe port congestion in China, caused by a series of typhoons and strong US import demand, could keep shipping rates elevated well beyond the traditional peak season and into 2027, according to industry executives.

Major container carriers reported that delays at Asian ports reduced available shipping capacity across the trans-Pacific trade in September, as vessels struggled to maintain schedules.

According to maritime research firm Sea-Intelligence, only 32.2% of container ships arrived on time at Asian ports in August, with late vessels averaging 7.28 days behind schedule.

China experienced some of the worst disruptions, with port schedule reliability falling to 23.9% in August from 35.8% in July. Shanghai and Ningbo-Zhoushan recorded even lower on-time arrival rates of 12.2% and 16.9%, respectively.

The congestion has significantly affected shipping capacity. Ocean carrier executives estimate that effective trans-Pacific capacity could fall by 15% to 20% in October compared with September as delays continue to disrupt vessel schedules.

Meanwhile, US import demand remains strong. Data from Vizion TradeView showed that Asian import bookings surged between 16% and 28% in the two weeks before China’s Golden Week holiday, which began October 1.

Demand is also being supported by a shift in US sourcing toward China from Southeast Asia, along with increased shipments of equipment and materials for data center construction.

The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are expecting approximately 265,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of loaded imports during the week of October 11–17, well above the roughly 200,000 TEUs considered a strong week.

Despite signs of improvement, congestion remains a concern. Shanghai’s vessel queue dropped from 129 ships on September 7 to 47 on September 28, according to Portcast. However, logistics provider Dimerco expects heavy congestion to continue into mid-to-late October, with berthing delays exceeding five days.

Other Asian shipping hubs are also struggling. Singapore’s schedule reliability fell to 32.4% in August from 42.6% in July, according to Sea-Intelligence.

With shipping demand holding steady and port delays limiting available vessel capacity, industry executives warn that pressure on trans-Pacific shipping rates could persist into 2027.