Rising Oil Prices Pressure Asia-U.S. Shipping Contracts Despite Stable Base Rates
Bunker fuel surcharges surged as ocean carriers neared the final stages of locking down 2026–27 service contracts with midsize U.S. retailers and direct importers of Asia-sourced goods, driven by rising global oil prices amid the Iran war.
Crude oil prices climbed above $100 per barrel due to the conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, directly affecting customers negotiating their 2026–27 service contracts. As a result, bunker surcharges rose by as much as $400 per FEU.
This came despite container lines keeping trans-Pacific base rates largely stable, with Asia–U.S. West Coast spot rates rising just 1% to $2,675 per FEU, while Asia–U.S. East Coast rates increased 3% to $3,939 per FEU, according to the Freightos Baltic Index.
These levels are nearly identical to the base rates in the expiring 2025–26 service contracts, even as carriers face a year of flat or negative volume growth and mounting global overcapacity.
“Increased fuel costs from the Strait of Hormuz closure continue to keep container rates elevated during the post-Lunar New Year, pre-peak season low-demand period for ocean freight, when prices normally reach their floor for the year,” Freightos Research Head Judah Levine said in a note to clients.
“Even with this pressure, however, rates remain well below the spikes caused by recent disruptions such as the Red Sea crisis and trade-war frontloading.”
Most annual service contracts begin on May 1 and run through April 30 of the following year.
