Trade Disputes, Soft Volumes Extend Truckload Freight Slump

Truckload shippers in the U.S. are clinging to pricing power as freight volumes waver and trade
uncertainty triggers fresh negotiations with carriers. Many are turning to mini-bids or short-term
rate agreements to navigate shifting market conditions worsened by tariffs and now tempered
by a temporary trade truce between the U.S. and China.

For the next 90 days, the two countries will reduce reciprocal tariffs, offering some relief to
global supply chains. U.S. tariffs on many Chinese imports will fall from 145% to 30%, while
China’s tariffs on U.S. goods will drop from 125% to 10%. A 10% base tariff and targeted
measures like the 20% IEEPA fentanyl tariff remain in place.

Despite the short-term reprieve, uncertainty continues to dominate freight markets. Contractual
rate increases in the truckload sector have remained modest, typically in the low to mid-single-
digit range, falling short of carriers’ hopes but still marking a rebound from the rate declines of
2023 and 2024.

“We’re seeing more shippers initiate mini-bids to address issues like lower-than-expected
volumes and carrier turn backs,” said Mark Rourke, CEO of Schneider National, in an interview
with the Journal of Commerce.

These mini-bids reflect how fragile demand forecasting has become. Freight volumes, already
weak since 2022, are being reshaped by fluctuating trade policy. Many carriers say volumes in
early 2025 have not materialized as projected.

“We’re not committing capacity at rates that don’t reflect the value we bring,” Rourke added.
“That lets us take on newer, more attractive opportunities.”

Mini-bids are becoming a strategic hedge for shippers amid market instability, particularly as
hopes for a mid-2025 recovery fade. Carriers now say the downturn could stretch into 2026
unless trade tensions ease.

Truckload carriers are scaling back further as conditions remain soft. Preliminary orders for new
heavy-duty trucks dropped 52% year-over-year in April, ACT Research reported. The trend is
likely to drive the Journal of Commerce Truckload Capacity Index (TCI) even lower as the index
fell to 75.7 in Q4 2024, the lowest in a decade and down nearly 19% from its 2022 peak.

Werner Enterprises has also cut its fleet, trimming its tractor count by nearly 5% in Q1 2025.
While both its dedicated and one-way truckload operations were reduced, the company expects
new contract wins in its dedicated segment to drive growth later this year.

“While our one-way fleet is smaller than in prior years, we remain focused on key markets,
including cross-border freight into Mexico,” said Werner CEO Derek Leathers.

Leathers added that if tariffs remain in place, equipment costs could rise modestly. However,
growing demand and stronger resale values could help offset those increases. He also
anticipates a shakeout among small carriers as trade pressures persist.