Shipping Slowdown Deepens Heading Into 2026 Amid Weak Retail Demand

US ocean shipping is closing out 2025 on a weak note as import volumes continue to fall,
signaling a deeper slowdown heading into 2026.

Retailers, who typically restock early in the year, have already frontloaded imports in recent
months due to tariff concerns. With consumers spending more cautiously, demand for new
goods has dropped, leaving inventories thin and shipping volumes down.

The Global Port Tracker by Hackett Associates and the National Retail Federation projects
double-digit declines in imports for November and December, with monthly volumes expected to
stay below 2 million TEUs until March.

“These conditions make market forecasting highly uncertain. Our trade outlook is for a small
decline in imports this year compared with 2024 and a further, larger decline in the first quarter
of 2026.” said Ben Hackett, the firm’s founder, in an interview with Journal of Commerce.
Meanwhile, Moody’s Ratings forecasts US container volumes to be flat or down 2% in 2026,
following a possible 1% drop this year.

The weaker trade outlook mirrors the slowdown in retail spending. S&P Global expects holiday
sales to grow only 3.2% this year — down from 4.8% in 2024 — as rising prices and job
concerns weigh on consumers.

“Critically, this downshift in [retail] growth is an untimely reminder of consumers’ precarious
position; they have managed to continue spending despite the ebb and flow of prices in recent
years, but each time their steps have been more measured,” said S&P Global’s Michael Zdinak.

The US consumer price index rose 0.3% in September, putting annual inflation at 3%. The 43-
day federal government shutdown delayed the October CPI report and dampened sentiment,
with the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index falling in November to its lowest
since May.

Retailers are feeling the strain while cautious consumers have pushed retailers to keep
inventories lean. The US inventory-to-retail sales ratio has hovered between 1.28 and 1.32,
according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, showing that despite earlier frontloading, stocks
remain tight.

Retailers are expected to maintain this strategy into next year, with Global Port Tracker
forecasting a 12.2% year-over-year drop in first-quarter 2026 imports to 5.62 million TEUs.
Despite the soft consumer outlook, the broader economy remains on a slow-growth path. The
unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.3% in August to 4.4% in September, while
manufacturing activity stayed modestly positive, with S&P Global’s US Manufacturing
Purchasing Managers’ Index easing to 52.2 in October from 52.5 a month earlier.