Rising Middle East Tensions Dash Hopes for Red Sea Shipping Restart

Shippers moving cargo between Asia, Europe and the U.S. East Coast face renewed
uncertainty over when vessels can safely return to the Red Sea and Suez Canal, as tensions in
the Middle East escalate.

A U.S. carrier strike group has arrived in the Gulf of Oman following a new warning from
President Donald Trump that the United States could take military action against Iran over
stalled nuclear negotiations.

Tehran has vowed to respond to any attack, raising concerns that violence could spread to the
southern Red Sea, where Iran-backed Houthi militants have targeted commercial ships for more
than two years.

The deteriorating security situation has left ocean carriers and their customers unsure when
normal transits through the Red Sea and Suez Canal can resume.

“Shippers are faced with the greatest challenges out there right now,” said Destine Ozuygur,
senior market analyst at rate benchmarking platform Xeneta. “They’re at the bottom of the
operational decision funnel, which leaves them more vulnerable to shocks or setbacks than any
other stakeholder in the equation.”

Ozuygur said shippers must build purchasing strategies based on factors largely outside their
control.

“Shippers are forced to create a procurement strategy that rests on their ability to surmise the
behavior of carriers, insurers, politicians [and] militias,” she said.

“Even with a complex framework of decision-making tools, operational insights and the best
data visibility out there, we can’t confidently predict the next six weeks, let alone the next six
days in a scenario like this,” she added.

The unpredictability was evident this month. After two years of rerouting ships around southern
Africa to avoid the Red Sea, expectations grew that some services would resume through the
Suez Canal after the Lunar New Year. On Jan. 15, Maersk said it would route a Middle
East–U.S. East Coast service through the Red Sea.

Days later, CMA CGM said it would scale back plans to send three Asia–Europe westbound
services through the Suez Canal, citing the “complex and uncertain international context.”

A week after that announcement, Iran-backed Houthi militants released two videos warning that
attacks on ships could resume “soon.” The warnings came just days before the U.S. carrier
strike group, led by the USS Abraham Lincoln, arrived in the region following Trump’s renewed
threat against Tehran.

For now, carriers and cargo owners remain in a holding pattern, waiting to see whether the Red
Sea route can reopen safely or whether diversions around Africa will continue.