Freight Market Faces Uncertainty as Trucking Rates Climb Slowly

U.S. trucking rates are recovering after nearly three years of decline, but economic headwinds
threaten further setbacks.

Despite a year-over-year increase in truckload rates, optimism in the freight market has faded
due to tariffs under former President Donald Trump’s administration and concerns over a
possible recession. Freight demand remains weak for both truckload and less-than-truckload
(LTL) carriers, and rate increases have been slow.

Lee Klaskow, senior transportation and logistics analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, told the
Journal of Commerce that early optimism for 2025 has waned. “What’s going on in Washington
will have significant effects on consumers because it is going to be inflationary, assuming the
tariffs are implemented,” he said.

The Trump administration has imposed tariffs while delaying import taxes on certain
commodities from Mexico, Canada, and China. However, the list of potential tariffs continues to
grow, adding uncertainty to supply chains.

Avery Vise, vice president of trucking at FTR Transportation Intelligence, said tariff-related
disruptions must be factored into forecasts. He noted that spot truckload rates on U.S.-Canada
routes are rising sharply, while delays in importing goods from Mexico are also increasing.
FTR predicts truckload rates will rise 3% in 2025 after a 2.5% decline last year, with spot rates
expected to jump 6% and contract rates 2%.

“It’s not a bad market for carriers, but it’s not improving yet,” Vise said. “I would venture it’s not
likely to accelerate unless we see some stronger data than we’re seeing.”

With tariffs looming and economic uncertainty persisting, trucking companies are bracing for
continued volatility in freight demand and pricing.