Despite Full Yards and Rising Costs, Shipping Giants Continue Ordering Spree

The global container shipping industry is pressing ahead with record ship orders despite full
shipyards, uncertain demand, and ongoing questions surrounding the availability of alternative
fuels. The dual pressure of fleet renewal and the transition to greener shipping continues to
drive investments, keeping the newbuilding cycle at high levels.

By the start of 2025, container ship orders had reached a record 8.3 million TEUs, equivalent to
27.7% of the in-service fleet, according to Jan Tiedemann, senior analyst at Alphaliner. And
while some industry analysts had predicted a slowdown due to high construction costs, there is
no sign of hesitation among ocean carriers. “Currently, there is little sign of an order slowdown,
despite sky-high newbuilding prices,” Tiedemann said. “One of the reasons for this is quite
simple: The carriers are sitting on piles of cash, which they ‘have to’ spend.”

Major shipping lines are pressing forward with significant new orders. Tiedemann highlighted an
expected 12-ship order of 24,000-TEU vessels by Evergreen, while CMA CGM is weighing a
two-part order that could total 20 ships in the 18,000-TEU range. Greek shipowner George
Economou is also set to place an order for ten 11,500-TEU ships, while Yang Ming and
Mediterranean Shipping Co. are both considering major fleet renewal plans. These orders follow
a pattern of investment driven by environmental regulations and the need for greater fuel
efficiency.

HSBC, in its latest shipbuilding report, noted that the industry is entering a long-term fleet
renewal cycle. While new orders are expected to decline over the next four years compared with
the 2024 peak, HSBC predicts they will remain 40% higher than the average from 2016 to 2020.
The report highlighted that more than 60,000 fossil-fueled cargo ships will need replacement
over the next two decades. “We believe a long-term newbuild cycle is underway, with tailwinds
from the renewal of an aging fleet and the transition to energy-efficient vessels,” HSBC stated.
Alternative fuels are playing a growing role in newbuild orders. In 2024, some 69% of all
container ship orders were for vessels capable of running on alternative fuels, as cargo owners
responded to market demand for sustainability. According to classification society DNV, a total
of 515 vessels were added to the order book in 2024, marking a 38% year-over-year increase.
Notably, 264 LNG-powered vessels were ordered, a 103% increase from 2023, alongside 166
methanol-capable vessels.

Even as record numbers of new ships enter the market, older ships are lingering longer than
anticipated. Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst at BIMCO, noted that scrapping activity
has remained low in recent years, and the average fleet age has increased by 1.4 years since
2020, reaching an average of 14 years per ship. According to BIMCO data, 3.4 million TEUs of
capacity currently belong to ships that are 20 years old or older. If all these ships were recycled
in the next five years, fleet growth would still reach 16% by 2029, assuming no further new
orders.

Despite projections of steady fleet growth, factors such as the ongoing Red Sea crisis and the
trend of slow steaming could lead to higher-than-expected demand for new tonnage.
Rasmussen noted that 680,000 TEUs per year would need to be scrapped to maintain balance,

but current rates suggest actual recycling levels will be lower. “As long as ships cannot fully
return to the Red Sea, recycling will likely continue to be low, and at the same time, the smaller
ship segments tend to be recycled later than average,” he said. “Therefore, average annual fleet
growth during the next five years could end higher than 3%.”

With shipping lines focused on replacing aging assets and meeting new emissions targets, the
order book is expected to remain strong in the years ahead. Tiedemann estimated that to
maintain a balanced fleet, 1.25 million TEUs must be delivered annually just to replace retiring
ships, with an additional 2% annual growth needed to account for increased global trade and
slow steaming. “That means we could see a steady stream of orders well into the next decade,”
he said.

As the shipping industry navigates a future of environmental regulations, geopolitical
uncertainties, and shifting trade patterns, fleet renewal remains a top priority. Whether driven by
sustainability goals, regulatory compliance, or pure economic strategy, the current ordering
spree signals that major carriers are preparing for a future where efficiency and fuel flexibility
will be critical to maintaining competitiveness in global trade.