Spot Rates Surge 18.9% in Strong 2025 Holiday Peak, Brokers Brace for 2026 Volatility

The U.S. trucking market began showing signs of renewed tightness in late 2025 after more
than three years of low rates and excess capacity that forced many small carriers out of
business. Since 2022, cheap truckload rates, loose capacity, and tighter credit have steadily
thinned the market, particularly hurting newer entrants who bought equipment at inflated
pandemic prices.

In 2025, market conditions started to shift. Tender rejections, which is a key indicator of capacity
tightness, opened the year higher than in previous years and stayed elevated. Seasonal
shipping surges tied to produce season, summer holidays, and back-to-school periods were
stronger than usual, suggesting early signs of recovery.

The real test came during the holiday peak. A series of winter storms battered the Midwest and
Northeast during Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and the Christmas shopping period, disrupting
networks and tightening supply further. Tender rejections climbed to 13.24 percent, well above
the 7–8 percent level that typically signals rising rates. Spot rates also jumped 18.9 percent,
from $2.32 per mile on November 15 to $2.76 by December 28 marking the sharpest increase in
several years, according to FreightWaves data.

Small fleets and owner-operators who rely on the spot market benefited from the higher rates,
but freight brokers faced challenges as their costs rose. David Spencer, Vice President of
Market Intelligence at Arrive Logistics, said their company had anticipated the volatility in an
interview with FreightWaves.

“Our peak-season planning process began with a review of prior-year trends to better
understand the timing of historical rate increases and capacity constraints,” Spencer said. “Our
primary goal was to maintain optimal service levels throughout the season, operating under the
assumption that any disruption would be temporary.”

Arrive adjusted its pricing systems to ensure quotes reflected realistic market conditions and
avoided unprofitable loads. “Leading into peak season, tender rejections were already
elevated,” Spencer said. “Widespread winter weather accelerated the disruption earlier than
expected and sustained it through year-end. The usual December lull never materialized,
allowing rejections and spot rates to reach multi-year highs.”

While capacity continues to contract, demand remains uncertain. Protectionist trade policies and
tariffs have disrupted import patterns, and major infrastructure investments announced by
shippers have yet to translate into freight growth. Still, U.S. consumers have continued to
spend, accounting for more than half of the 4.3 percent year-over-year GDP growth in the third
quarter of 2025.

Analysts believe the trucking market is poised for a firmer rate environment in 2026, though a
sustained upturn still requires a stronger demand catalyst. “The risk of a large, sustained market
disruption remains relatively low,” Spencer said. “However, increased sensitivity during seasonal
upswings creates more opportunities for spot rates to exceed contract rates. While a prolonged
disruption in 2026 is unlikely, the probability has increased after the strong fourth quarter of
2025.”