U.S retail imports surge to beat strike and tariff risks

In the last two months of 2024, U.S. retailers are expected to import 350,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) more than expected a month ago, according to the latest Global Port Tracker (GPT) report. 

According to the report, the retailers rush to import their goods to avoid a possible strike in January by the International Longshoremen Association (ILA) dockworkers and the possible billions of dollars in new tariffs proposed by President-elect Donald Trump. 

GPT report showed that retailers revised their import projections for November to an increase of 13.6% year over year as compared to the forecast of a 0.9% increase a month ago. 

The November GPT, published monthly by Hackett Associates and the National Retail Federation (NRF), also forecasted a 6.1% increase in US imports in December, higher than the projected 0.2% increase in the previous report. 

Retailers have already frontloaded imports in the previous months in anticipation of a possible strike by the ILA during their contract negotiations with their employers, who are members of the United States Maritime Alliance, at East and Gulf Ports. The strike lasted for three days in October before the two parties reached a tentative agreement on wages. 

The contract will be extended until January 15 to address the remaining issues, such as automation. ILA and USMX are set to resume negotiations this month. 

Meanwhile, as Trump assumed office for the second time around earlier this month, his threat of imposing tariffs of as much as 200% on US imports from China became a reality.

This prompted expectations that retailers will fast-track imports of spring merchandise before the Lunar New Year on January 29, when most of the factories in China will close shop for a week or two, as it takes several months for purchase orders to arrive at US ports from the factories in China. 

Moreover, GPT also upgraded its January forecast for US imports to a 2.5% increase from last month’s forecast of a 0.8% gain, while its February outlook posted a 9.3% year-over-year decline from the previous forecast of an 11.2% drop.